Win rate vs Expectancy: what's the difference?
Why a high win rate can lose money and a low one can print — the metric that actually matters.
The short version
Why a high win rate can lose money and a low one can print — the metric that actually matters.
- Win rate: The percentage of your trades that are profitable.
- Expectancy: The average profit/loss per trade, combining win rate with win/loss sizes.
Side by side
| Dimension | Win rate | Expectancy |
|---|---|---|
| Measures | How often you win | How much you make on average |
| Can mislead | High win rate, tiny wins, big losses | Needs a real sample size |
| Decides profitability | No, on its own | Yes |
| Memecoin reality | Often low (many small losers) | Positive if winners are big enough |
Which one should you care about?
Key idea — Judge a strategy by expectancy after costs, not win rate. A 30% win rate with huge winners beats a 70% rate with tiny ones.
Tired of finding the pump after it already ran?
Get the live contract and suggested size in Telegram for $10/week. Free name-and-score DMs are available if you want to try it first. No alert guarantees a profitable trade.
Education only — not financial advice. Memecoins are extremely high risk.
Related guides
- Verifying on-chain vs Trusting the chat: what's the difference?
- A planned exit vs An emotional exit: what's the difference?
- Liquidity growing vs Liquidity draining: what's the difference?
- Small consistent gains vs One big gamble: what's the difference?
- Tokenomics vs Hype: what's the difference?
- Market cap vs FDV: what's the difference?
- Slippage vs Price impact: what's the difference?
- Hard rug vs Soft rug: what's the difference?
- How to understand a memecoin position size
- How to analyze a memecoin position size
- How to read a memecoin chart
- How to analyze a memecoin chart