Win rate vs Expectancy: what's the difference?
Why a high win rate can lose money and a low one can print — the metric that actually matters.
The short version
Why a high win rate can lose money and a low one can print — the metric that actually matters.
- Win rate: The percentage of your trades that are profitable.
- Expectancy: The average profit/loss per trade, combining win rate with win/loss sizes.
Side by side
| Dimension | Win rate | Expectancy |
|---|---|---|
| Measures | How often you win | How much you make on average |
| Can mislead | High win rate, tiny wins, big losses | Needs a real sample size |
| Decides profitability | No, on its own | Yes |
| Memecoin reality | Often low (many small losers) | Positive if winners are big enough |
Which one should you care about?
Key idea — Judge a strategy by expectancy after costs, not win rate. A 30% win rate with huge winners beats a 70% rate with tiny ones.
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Education only — not financial advice. Memecoins are extremely high risk.
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