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How to read a market-cap-to-FDV gap

A market-cap-to-FDV gap is a large difference between a token's circulating market cap and its fully diluted valuation. This guide covers how to read it — interpreting the on-chain and chart data that reveals it — with the signals to watch, where to find them, and the mistake to avoid.

What a market-cap-to-FDV gap is

A market-cap-to-FDV gap is a large difference between a token's circulating market cap and its fully diluted valuation. Learning to read it is about interpreting the on-chain and chart data that reveals it.

The signals that matter

When you are reading a market-cap-to-FDV gap, these are the concrete signals to focus on:

  • Circulating supply far below total supply
  • Scheduled unlock cliffs
  • Large locked team allocations
  • A low mcap headline beside a huge FDV
  • A live mint authority that can grow supply

Where to look

You will mostly observe a market-cap-to-FDV gap in the circulating vs total supply figures and the vesting schedule. To read it correctly, go straight to these sources rather than relying on chat or hype.

To read it correctly: the steps

  1. Open the right data source for this signal.
  2. Interpret each field in context rather than in isolation.
  3. Cross-reference with a second source to confirm.
  4. Translate the reading into a clear go/skip/exit decision.

The mistake almost everyone makes

Watch out — The classic error: buying a "cheap" mcap while ignoring a huge FDV waiting to dilute it.

Turning the read into action

Spotting it is only half the job — acting on it under time pressure is the other half. The conditions around a market-cap-to-FDV gap can change in seconds, which is why many traders pair their own reads with real-time alerts that watch continuously and ping the moment something lines up.

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