How to evaluate a market-cap-to-FDV gap

What a market-cap-to-FDV gap is

A market-cap-to-FDV gap is a large difference between a token's circulating market cap and its fully diluted valuation. Learning to evaluate it is about judging it quickly with a repeatable framework.

The signals that matter

When you are evaluating a market-cap-to-FDV gap, these are the concrete signals to focus on:

• Circulating supply far below total supply
• Scheduled unlock cliffs
• Large locked team allocations
• A low mcap headline beside a huge FDV
• A live mint authority that can grow supply

Where to look

You will mostly observe a market-cap-to-FDV gap in the circulating vs total supply figures and the vesting schedule. To evaluate it, go straight to these sources rather than relying on chat or hype.

To evaluate it: the steps

1. Use a fixed checklist so every case is judged the same way.
2. Start with the non-negotiables (authorities, liquidity status).
3. Then weigh the contextual signals against the baseline.
4. Reach a clear go/skip decision rather than a vague feeling.

The mistake almost everyone makes

Turning the read into action

Knowing the theory around a market-cap-to-FDV gap is necessary but not sufficient. The traders who consistently act on it have collapsed their recognition lag — usually with alerts that flag the relevant conditions in real time, leaving them free to focus on judgment and execution.